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A Timeline of Public Opinion on Economic Mobility: Can You Achieve the American Dream?

By Nikki Marrone ’20

BIPP Survey Research Laboratory Intern

The Bucknell Institute of Public Policy has studied changing opinions on economic mobility from before President Trump’s election to today in order to determine how attainable everyday Americans believe the “American Dream” is. Is the “American Dream” a lie, only achievable for the wealthy or those who look a certain way? Or can an individual really be successful, no matter where he or she starts from, if they work hard enough? In a range of nationally representative surveys conducted by YouGov in the fall of 2016, fall of 2017, and fall of 2018, the Bucknell Institute of Public Policy asked respondents what they believed the likelihood of an individual born into a family making 25k a year is to make 100k a year.

When examined by partisanship, the Bucknell Institute of Public Policy found that in fall of 2016, prior to President Trump’s election, 32% of Democrats and 31% of Republicans believed it was very likely that the individual could make 100k. In fall of 2017, after the election of President Trump, 22% of Democrats believed it was very likely that the individual could make 100k and 33% of Republicans believed it was very likely that the individual could make 100k. In fall of 2018, these numbers had increased to 26% of Democrats and 38% Republicans who believed it was very likely that an individual born into a family making 25k could make 100k.

In fall of 2016, prior to President Trump’s election, 32% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans believed it was not at all likely that the individual could make 100k. In fall of 2017, after the election of President Trump, 36% of Democrats believed it was not at all likely that the individual could make 100k and 13% of Republicans believed it was not at all likely that the individual could make 100k. In fall of 2018, the survey showed that 53% of Democrats and 6% Republicans believed it was not at all likely that an individual born into a family making 25k could make 100k.

The Bucknell Institute of Public Policy also examined how individuals of different races evaluated this individual’s chance of earning 100k.

When examined by race, the Bucknell Institute of Public Policy found that in fall of 2016, prior to President Trump’s election, 64% of white individuals and 13% of African American individuals believed it was very likely that the individual could make 100k. In fall of 2017, after the election of President Trump, 72% of white individuals believed it was very likely that the individual could make 100k and 9% of African American individuals believed it was very likely that the individual could make 100k. In fall of 2018, these numbers had increased to 60% of white individuals and 14% of African American individuals who believed it was very likely that an individual born into a family making 25k could make 100k.

In fall of 2016, prior to President Trump’s election, 59% of white individuals and 16% of African American individuals believed it was not at all likely that the individual could make 100k. In fall of 2017, after the election of President Trump, 67% of white individuals believed it was not at all likely that the individual could make 100k and 16% of African American individuals believed it was not at all likely that the individual could make 100k. In fall of 2018, the survey showed that 73% of white individuals and 7% African American individuals believed it was not at all likely that an individual born into a family making 25k could make 100k.

As the country moves towards the next presidential election cycle, voters will begin to evaluate how they feel the economy is doing and how they benefit from President Trump’s economic policies. Can they attain the “American Dream” or do they feel isolated from the prospect? Has life been better for them with President Trump in office? Economic mobility will be at the forefront of political discussions during the 2020 primaries as a way to understand who feels they are included in the definition of what it means to be an “American” and who feels they can reach the “American Dream.”

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